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07
2018
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12
Industry Analysis | 2018 Wind Power Market Demand Analysis of China's Transformer Manufacturing Industry
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In recent years, China's large-scale development of wind power, transformer as one of the main equipment of wind farm, due to the unstable output power of wind power, transformer no-load and high load loss, the energy-saving requirements of the transformer is higher; wind power plant layout is scattered and remote, the transformer needs to have the characteristics of low failure rate, maintenance-free, its failure to a certain extent affect the power generation efficiency of wind farm.
In recent years, China's large-scale development of wind power, transformer as one of the main equipment of wind farm, due to the unstable output power of wind power, transformer no-load and load loss is higher, the energy-saving requirements of the transformer is higher; wind power plant layout is scattered and remote, the transformer needs to have the characteristics of low failure rate and maintenance-free, its fault to a certain extent affect the wind farmPower generation benefits.
In addition to the performance requirements, the construction of wind power stations has a relatively high demand for transformers. Each wind power generator needs to be equipped with a box-type substation, and the power station also needs a number of high-voltage main transformers connected to the grid and medium and low-voltage substation equipment for stations. Therefore, the development of China's wind power industry affects the technology update and demand scale of China's transformer manufacturing industry.
Wind power grid capacity growth slows downUse hours up
Due to the influence of various objective factors, compared with the installed capacity, the market situation reflected by the grid-connected capacity of wind power in China will have a certain lag, but it is one of the core indicators to judge the development of wind power industry. Statistics from the wind energy professional committee of the Chinese Renewable Energy Society show:In 2017, China's new and cumulative grid-connected installed capacity reached1530thousands of kilowatts,16400Ten thousand kilowatts, new grid-connected capacity continues to decline, China's wind power grid-connected growth rate slowed down.
Due to the lag in grid construction and the lack of stability in wind power generation, domestic wind power plants have been forced to suspend operations, I .e."Abandon Wind"The problem has been more prominent, the annual wind power equipment utilization hours long-term fluctuations in the lower level.2017In, the average number of wind power utilization hours nationwide was1948hours, more2016of the year1742hours increased.206Hours. The utilization hours of wind power equipment have increased significantly, which means that the demand for transformers for wind power equipment has further increased.
Stable demand for wind power special transformer
According to the empirical data of the power industry, the demand for transformers is closely related to the new installed capacity of power generation equipment, and the ratio is close12:1, forward-looking calculation of the new installed capacity of wind power generation on the new demand for transformers,2017In, new demand for wind power transformers was127.5Ten thousand kilowatts.
National planningBy the end of 2020, the cumulative grid-connected installed capacity of wind power will be guaranteed to reach2.1More than 100 million kilowatts, of which the installed capacity of offshore wind power grid-connected reached500More than 10,000 kilowatts; annual wind power generation is ensured to reach4200Billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for about the country's total power generation.6%.2017In, China's cumulative wind power grid capacity is1.64billion kilowatts, then2018-2020Year3During the year, the new installed capacity of wind power is about.0.46Billion kilowatts, assuming that the ratio of transformer demand to new installed capacity of power generation equipment is12：1, forward-looking calculation2020The incremental demand for wind power transformers in China is about383.33million kilowatts, with an average annual demand127.8million kilowatts, and2017The year is basically flat.
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